Inside the New Fitness Economy: What It Takes To Win in 2025
From GLP-1s to gym consolidation, Kyle Perreira from Lincoln International offers insights for brands and fitness and wellness operators looking to make their mark in a competitive market
As consumer priorities continue to shift toward health-centered habits and competition intensifies, companies in the fitness and wellness space are under pressure to step up—or risk falling behind.
Kyle Perreira, director at global investment bank Lincoln International, has a bird’s-eye view of all things fitness, outdoor and experiential and says that the businesses best positioned for growth are those that can not only recognize emerging trends but move quickly to meet them.
Athletech News spoke with Perreira to break down the key shifts and his insight on how forward-thinking brands can turn these changes into a strategic advantage.
The GLP-1 Effect
You can’t talk about the industry’s current state or future without addressing the impact of weight loss drugs—industry-disrupting medications that are quickly reshaping consumer behavior and forcing industries of all kinds, including food and beverage, to rethink their approach. Their widespread adoption—and the growing emphasis on preserving lean muscle mass—has driven more consumers to the gym and/or on the hunt for a personal trainer who is specialized in training clients on (or tapering off) GLP-1s.
But who Perreira sees driving higher membership rates is where things get interesting.
“I think the data really indicates that GLP-1s are increasing membership rates,” Perreira says. “A lot of people reference that, and the data supports it. We’re seeing higher membership rates, especially among younger people, along with increased workout frequency. From our perspective, and from what I’ve heard across the board, GLP-1s allow people to get to a position to begin focusing more on fitness and wellness overall, which is a good thing. You can’t just take a GLP-1 and sit around all day—it typically leads to better eating habits and better workout habits to regain muscle mass lost from taking GLPs. So ultimately, it’s driving an increase in membership rates, particularly among younger demographics.”
Some fitness brands are already ahead of the game, combining their signature fitness experiences with access to weight loss medications, such as Life Time’s Miora, Recess Rx and Lindora. Notably, fitness equipment leader Echelon is also pushing into the GLP-1 space with the launch of ActiveMD to create an omnichannel fitness and wellness offering.
Tech-enabled Fitness
In many ways, connected fitness as we know it is just the beginning. Perreira envisions a future where data is integrated across all of a consumer’s fitness modalities—especially as post-pandemic habits have led people to work out in more locations and with more types of equipment than ever before, including at home.
“I think there are going to be more equipment manufacturers that figure out how they continue to drive innovation and find better ways to connect the fitness product ecosystem across different types of equipment and brands,” he says. “It’s going to be all about tracking data across your workout life cycle.”
Perreira projects that one or two category leaders are likely to develop integrated technology that could mark a game-changing moment for the industry.
“People are going to jump in on that, and all the smaller brands are going to say, ‘Okay, I’m integrating with this ecosystem,'” he says. Who that is—I don’t think has been decided yet—and I think there’s going to be a lot of people that are going to try and fight for that first mover advantage.”
How Consolidation Is Redefining Growth
While 2024 delivered a wave of headline-making deals across the fitness industry, the pace of consolidation shows no signs of slowing this year—and it’s just the beginning.
“Over the coming years, you’ll see more independent gym concepts continue to get swallowed up,” Perreira says. “Long story short—it’s just a natural evolution, and there’s more investment dollars getting to this space every year.”
He does, however, offer advice to independent gyms looking to attract the attention of large “buy and build” platforms—or simply continue scaling on their own.
“There’s no free lunch in this market,” Perreira says. “Everyone’s trying to get better. If you’re not constantly trying to create value for your consumers, there’s risk. Consumers get bored every five years. If you’re not constantly evolving with that, you’re naturally going to lose. You have to be better than your competition. People want culture. People want community—and if you can create that, that creates loyalty and that’s how you win.”
The Femtech Wave
The rise of femtech is another area that shows promise, with Perreira pointing to more publications on the topic and startups that have dramatically grown over the last few years.
“There’s a lot of interest in terms of targeting this demographic better,” he says. “Because it was underserved for a long, long time. There’s interest and excitement there which is leading to additional investment dollars dedicated to this sector.”
It’s also an area where we’re already seeing some consolidation in 2025. Earlier this month, California-based Willow, a femtech brand known for creating the first in-bra wearable breast pump, has acquired Elvie, a U.K.-based health and lifestyle company.
The Caitlin Clark Effect
One major opportunity for brands lies in the growing women’s sports sector, with online searches for the WNBA surging 322% in 2024.
“The Caitlin Clark effect is real,” Perreira says. “On the sports side, there’s significant interest in sports and specifically team sports. You’re seeing the maturity of men’s sports in terms of equipment sales, but the women’s sports and the women’s fitness category is growing quicker. So, in that sense, people want to put more investment dollars towards the faster growing category, which is great, and there should be more innovation there.”
Surging viewership of the WNBA and women’s college basketball is one example where increasing awareness is translating into broader ideas for new products and innovations.
“It creates more conversations in the boardrooms for these equipment manufacturers to say, ‘Wow, why aren’t we creating a new shoe for the WNBA? Why aren’t we creating a revolutionary softball helmet? Why aren’t we trying to target that too? Why aren’t we pushing software and hardware towards data analytics in softball?’ Everything’s about baseball analytics today. Let’s create softball too, because there’s more and more attention there.”
Is Pickleball Built to Last?
Pickleball has found its footing as an accessible alternative to tennis—but will its staying power be tested as more competitive racket sports like padel and squash gain traction and attract consumers ready for a new challenge?
“If you think about anything that targets consumers, if you can target the middle you can really gain adoption quickly—from a consumer perspective, you could be really good at it, but you actually don’t have to be that good at it to enjoy it,” Perreira says. “It’s a perfect sport for casual players to quickly get good at. So, it definitely has some legs. There’s definitely a lot of innovation in terms of paddle technology. Is it going to get three times, four times as big as it is today? Time will tell.”
‘Better for You’ Boom
With fitness and wellness trends increasingly intertwined with hydration and nutrition, high-margin categories like nutritional products and energy drinks are well-positioned for continued growth.
It’s also a category that could appeal to fitness and wellness operators exploring private-label opportunities in supplements, snacks or energy drinks or partnerships. Functional fitness franchisor F45 recently teamed with energy drink Red Bull to stock its drinks within its gyms, while luxury athletic country club operator Life Time expands its line of LTH supplements and active nutrition offerings.
“The new consumer doesn’t drink as much alcohol. The new consumer doesn’t want sugar,” Perreira notes. “The new consumer wants ‘better for you.’ Brands and the fitness concepts are hearing that and saying, ‘We want to sell that to you, because those are high margin products, so let us find that for you and make it convenient for you to purchase it.’ So that’s where we’re seeing an impact specifically within the fitness market.”
CPG giants are also responding. Last month, PepsiCo acquired prebiotic soda startup Poppi for $1.95 billion and Bloom Nutrition has entered the prebiotic beverage space, with plans to launch Bloom Pop later this year. Meanwhile, Olipop, a low-sugar functional soda brand with prebiotics, plant fiber and botanical extracts, recently secured a $50 million investment from J.P. Morgan Private Capital’s Growth Equity Partners, bringing its valuation to $1.85 billion.
The ‘Gym as a Clinic’ Concept
Although med-spas aren’t typically top of mind in conversations about fitness and wellness, the industry is starting to see crossover. Aesthetic services still have their place, but there’s growing interest in longevity-focused therapies, metabolic health support and comprehensive testing with routine check-ins.
“There’s been significant interest in med spas,” Perreira says. “There’s so much interest in technology-enabled health care right now, but they’re kind of all in their own lanes. Doctor’s offices are starting to get integrated, and gyms are starting to figure it out—obviously, there’s a little bit of regulatory dynamics, so that’s a little bit of the speedbump.”
He predicts that high-end gyms will be the first to integrate clinical health-focused offerings, though current regulatory hurdles remain. Equinox is one of the first, having partnered with longevity startup Function for a testing-informed and hyper-personalized approach to training. Moreover, Perreira points to mental health as a key area that will be integrated into the gym experience.
“We’re mirroring physical and mental health so much more every day, that eventually these gyms will need to further cater to both sides — it’s going to be truly holistic fitness,” he says. “I think that’s definitely going to be a trend that we’ll see play out as fitness concepts continue to find ways to incrementally connect with their members.”