Political & Economic Outlook: Experts on the State of Fitness & Wellness in 2025
Top political, economic and financial experts offer their takes on the state of the fitness and wellness industry in 2025, and share their predictions for the years ahead
Fitness and wellness is emerging as an increasingly powerful, professional and lucrative industry as more consumers recognize the benefits of living healthy and as big-name brands continue to expand their offerings.
The industry even seems to be in favor at the White House thanks to the Make America Healthy Again movement’s promises of foundational health reform.
That’s not to say the industry isn’t confronting challenges – global political instability, macroeconomic concerns and the ever-present lure of lying on the couch all present potential pitfalls. But generally speaking, fitness and wellness seems to be doing better than ever before.
Amid this landscape, Athletech News surveys key political, economic and financial experts to get their takes on the state of the fitness and wellness industry in 2025, as well as their predictions for the years ahead.
HFA Sees ‘Significant Opportunity’ for Fitness Industry
According to Liz Clark, president and CEO of the Health & Fitness Association (HFA), the fitness industry entered 2025 with plenty of positive momentum.
“Our consumer reports have shown steady increases in the number of consumers joining and regularly visiting fitness facilities year-over-year for the last three years, and we know that fitness consumers are committed because they know intellectually and empirically that exercise benefits physical and mental health,” Clark tells ATN.
While the current political situation in the United States is fraught, to say the least, HFA leaders see an opportunity for the fitness industry to establish itself as a bigger player in Washington D.C. given the healthcare-reform promises of Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.
“This environment presents a significant opportunity to position the fitness industry as a key player in preventive health,” Clark says. “With rising healthcare costs and a growing focus on chronic disease prevention, there is bipartisan support for policies that encourage Americans to be more physically active.”
In 2025, HFA is focusing much of its attention on legislation like the PHIT Act, securing recognition of the fitness industry’s role in military readiness, and fighting for beneficial legislation and regulation at the state level, Clark tells ATN.
As the fitness industry fights for a bigger voice in Washington and statehouses around the country, HFA is calling on major stakeholders to come together.
“The saying, ‘If you don’t have a seat at the table, you’re on the menu,’ remains as true as ever,” Clark says. “Policymakers are making decisions that impact the future of our industry every day, and if we aren’t actively involved – advocating for pro-fitness policies, defending against harmful regulations, and positioning physical activity as essential to public health – then others will shape the landscape without us. HFA is leading these fights, but we can only be as strong as the industry behind us.
“This environment presents a significant opportunity to position the fitness industry as a key player in preventive health,” she adds. “With rising healthcare costs and a growing focus on chronic-disease prevention, there is bipartisan support for policies that encourage Americans to be more physically active.”
More Consolidation Is Coming, McKinsey Predicts
The fitness and wellness industry is growing fast, and traditional players are noticing. McKinsey & Company, one of the world’s leading consulting firms, has made a serious push into fitness and wellness in recent years.
Eric Falardeau, a partner in McKinsey’s Montreal office who leads the firm’s global fitness and wellness practice, believes the industry is growing thanks to heightened consumer demand and increasingly sophisticated operators.
“Some of this growth rides on consumer tailwinds which are quite positive for the sector – fitness and wellness is very important to an increasing amount of people, but a lot of it is thanks to capabilities companies have invested in over the past five years or so, from revenue management to digital and analytics,” Falardeau tells ATN. “This is helping the overall sector grow.”
Falardeau expects to see more dealmaking activity in fitness and wellness in 2025, with consolidation continuing to emerge as a key theme. Just last year, Anytime Fitness and Orangetheory Fitness completed an industry-changing merger, forming Purpose Brands. Similar deals could be on the horizon in the years to come.
“The sector is entering its next chapter of consolidation, one that is particularly important to get right for leaders who want to thrive in five years,” Falardeau says. “The sector can inspire itself from many analogous sectors that have gone through this before. A lot of the discussions we’ve had with clients recently are centered around this.
“The (fitness and wellness) sector is entering its next chapter of consolidation, one that is particularly important to get right for leaders who want to thrive in five years,” he said. “The sector can inspire itself from many analogous sectors that have gone through this before.”
HVLP 2.0 Gyms Drive the Industry’s Post-Pandemic Resurgence
Jon Canarick, a managing partner at private equity firm North Castle Partners, is generally bullish on the fitness and wellness industry’s financial and economic health in 2025.
“For the most part, the industry is in increasingly better shape, but there are pockets where that is less true,” Canarick tells ATN. “2025 will see a continuation of strong growth for (high-value, low-price) HVLP fitness clubs, particularly HVLP 2.0+, which has more capital being allocated (to it) than any other sector in four-wall fitness, as far as I can tell.”
A leader in the HVLP 2.0 category, Crunch Fitness could be sold by owner TPG in a deal worth more than $1.5 billion, including debt, Reuters has reported. Other top HVLP gym brands are said to be exploring sales as well.
While economic and political uncertainties under the Trump administration could give some investors pause, Canarick expects to see more dealmaking activity in 2025 as the industry continues to distance itself from the pandemic period.
“COVID was so disruptive that there are many long-hold periods for private-equity backed companies,” Canarick says. “Shareholders, lenders and management teams are growing less patient.”
“Lenders own some assets in fitness due to COVID that they don’t want to own forever,” he adds. “PE firms are generally behind in their deployment schedules, particularly in consumer.”
As for what could be coming next in the booming wellness category, Canarick believes robotic massage is a modality to watch. Aescape just secured an additional $83 million in funding for its robotic, AI-powered massage machines that are being rolled out in Equinox clubs across the country and in upscale hotel chains like Four Seasons.
“Keep a close eye on that as a concept,” Canarick says. “If robotic massage gets better and better, prices will drop and massage may become more widely available for less money over time. For the most part, the industry is in increasingly better shape, but there are pockets where that is less true. 2025 will see a continuation of strong growth for (high-value, low-price) HVLP fitness clubs, particularly HVLP 2.0+.”
Fitness Industry Primed for ‘Biggest Year of Activity Ever’
For Jeremy Hirsch, head of franchise and multi-unit services at investment bank Houlihan Lokey, there’s never been a better time to be involved in fitness and wellness.
“2025 is poised to be the biggest year of activity ever in the fitness category,” Hirsch tells ATN, pointing to massive potential deals like TPG’s rumored sale of Crunch along with other major gym brands that are said to be exploring sales.
“There will also be a number of other smaller trades happening within the franchising space,” Hirsch adds.
Like Canarick, Hirsch believes HVLP 2.0 concepts (brands like Crunch, Chuze Fitness and EōS Fitness) are poised to keep growing in the years ahead. HVLP 2.0 gyms typically offer premium amenities and equipment like infrared saunas, Olympic weightlifting platforms and more, all for a monthly price that’s anywhere from $10 to $35/month depending on the membership package.
“We’re seeing average tickets (consumer spending) increase across the board, which is a function of the value that’s being delivered to gym members,” Hirsch notes. “We’re seeing folks upgrade from HVLP 1 to HVLP 2.0 concepts. And they’re willing to pay more to get more – within those concepts, when there’s pricing tiers, we’re seeing a lot of people trade up to the more amenitized (and expensive) pricing tiers.”
Like other analysts, Hirsch is cooling on the at-home and connected fitness space as consumers gravitate toward in-person fitness experiences post-pandemic.
“It’s a nice-to-have, but I think it’s becoming more of a convenience item rather than a routine item,” Hirsch says of at-home, connected fitness products. “That’s not to say that there aren’t people who don’t use them regularly, but (most) people want to go to the gym; they want to be around other people. 2025 is poised to be the biggest year of activity ever in the fitness category. … There will also be a number of other smaller trades happening within the franchising space.”
This article originally appeared in ATN’s 2025 State of the Industry Outlook Report, a go-to guide for understanding the next generation concepts that will shape the fitness and wellness industry in the upcoming decade. Download the free report.