The Playbook: Retail Insights From Listrak; Buy Now, Pay Later Is Growing
Inflation, supply chain shifts, AI adoption and value-driven shopping are shaping consumer behavior. Meanwhile, BNPL is likely to grow fast over the next decade
This story is part of “The Playbook,” a weekly column that takes a deep dive into the future of business, management and technology, with an eye toward practical applications for fitness and wellness executives
Earlier this past Spring, Jamie Elden, chief revenue officer at Listrak, was kind enough to invite me and my daughter (and her boyfriend) to see Kendrick Lamar at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey. We got the full VIP treatment. In the private suite, we were joined by executives from Vince, the apparel fashion brand, and S’well, the water bottle company, among others.
Before Lamar took the stage, while munching on appetizers, the conversation inevitably turned to discussing marketing (such as the recent reboot of the band Oasis) and consumer trends — specifically the state of the consumer mindset and how people and businesses are responding to a host of challenges, including inflation and the impact of tariffs.
Elden said navigating the current landscape is challenging and could be done with data and the right analytical tools, which can help retailers and brands be future-ready amid ongoing market disruptions. Elden and the Listrak team formalized this process by offering companies insights to help leaders make better decisions as the industry heads into the critical holiday shopping season.
Two weeks ago, Listrak launched its “Retail Outlook Reports for H2 2025,” which the company said is “designed to empower retailers to achieve a strong second half of the year. With editions focused on Fashion, Beauty and General Retail, the Outlook Reports analyze key trends and insights, and provide actionable strategies for retail success.”
Elden said in a statement that the first half of 2025 “reminded us that retail success is not about predicting the future – it’s about being prepared for the future.”
“While change is constant, with the right insights and tactics, retailers can convert change into advantage,” Elden added. “To support retail momentum throughout the second half of 2025, Listrak’s experts, leveraging Listrak’s predictive intelligence, identified key trends and provide tactics to power success through the balance of the year.”
Key Takeaways
Some of the top notes from the report include that price continues to matter most.
“With 37 percent of shoppers planning to cut non-essential spending into summer and holiday, private label brands and secondhand options are seeing major momentum,” the report’s authors said, adding that the recommended Playbook move it to drive value-driven engagement such as: “leveraging trigger price drop alerts via email, SMS and app push; automating campaigns for sale- and discount-engaged audiences; highlighting clearance and pre-loved categories in email navigation; and more.”
The report also showed that supply chain shifts are impacting inventory management.
“As imports from China dropped 65 percent year-over-year, and order cancellations are up 60 percent compared to 2020, disruptions are already impacting availability and will likely continue into the holiday season,” the report stated.
Listrak recommends tactics that include auditing inventory triggers “to align thresholds with today’s fulfillment speed” and raising low-inventory thresholds “to reflect faster sell-through” while extending recent windows for “back in stock” alerts due to longer restock timelines.
Other key findings include that AI is now an important shopping tool. “In 2025, 53 percent of consumers (polled) plan to use AI to support purchase decisions, and Listrak anticipates a growing shift from traditional search engines to AI assistants like ChatGPT during the holiday season,” the report noted.
The playbook move here is to offer personalized popups that are based on traffic sources to highlight AI-driven features for AI-referred users. Retailers and brands can also activate channel affinity “in segmentation and journey splits to reach the customer in their most engaged channel first.”
Listrak said brands can also leverage AI product recommendations in emails and onsite while personalizing with each message opened and each page navigated.
For my part, the most engaged channel can be found on mobile devices. At one point during Lamar’s show, the lights dimmed and everyone in the stadium turned on the flashlight of their mobile phones. It was mesmerizing to witness — over 80,000 phones sparking all in one place. And 80,000 consumer touchpoints, too.
For a closer look at the report and to see other Listrak research, see here.
BNPL Grows Globally
The latest market report from Horizon Databook and Grand View Research has the global “Buy Now, Pay Later” (BNPL) market valued at about $9.5 billion in 2024 and expects this fintech segment to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 27 percent from 2025 to 2033, reaching a whopping $80.15 billion.
Driving that growth trajectory “is the increasing consumer desire for flexible and convenient payment methods,” the report’s authors noted.
BNPL services allow consumers to purchase goods and services without having to pay the full cost upfront, which offers greater financial flexibility and reduces the initial financial burden,” the report noted. “The expansion of the BNPL market is also heavily influenced by the rise of e-commerce. As online shopping becomes more prevalent, consumers are looking for smooth and efficient payment options.”
The report identified the key BNPL players as Affirm, Klarna, Afterpay (Block Inc.), PayPal and Zip Co.
The report found that BNPL solutions seamlessly integrate into the online checkout process, thereby providing a quick and hassle-free payment experience.
“With the proliferation of e-commerce platforms and digital wallets, BNPL has become an appealing choice for both customers and merchants,” the report stated.
But it may not be smooth sailing. The report’s authors said a potential headwind to BNPL growth is a consumer who is increasingly saddled with debt. The report’s authors do have a Playbook move to help, though.
“To mitigate this risk and encourage responsible lending, BNPL providers should implement rigorous credit checks and properly assess a customer’s creditworthiness,” the report said. “Furthermore, providing clear information on the terms and conditions of BNPL options through educational campaigns can help consumers make informed financial choices and avoid excessive debt.”
It is important to note that for gym and fitness studio owners, wellness centers, spas and equipment retailers, the BNPL lender typically bears the risk when a consumer defaults on their payments.
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